Who in the world are the Jaguars going to take at pick 16?  A quarterback? A defensive end? Perhaps a kicker?  Kidding.

I don't believe I saw one correct mock draft last season that had the Jaguars selecting Tyson Alualu.  I include myself when I say that it's utterly impossible to grasp exactly what the team is thinking prior to the draft.

Despite all the media and mock drafts, nobody has a clue outside of Gene Smith, Jack Del Rio, Wayne Weaver and the scouting team.

Let's take a look at two examples from the past two drafts. 

2009: Derek Cox.  Who the heck is Derek Cox out of William and Mary, and why the heck did the Jaguars just trade a 2010 second-round pick for this guy?  According to Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and anybody else who had no idea who this guy was, this pick was a complete bust. 

Reality of it?  Great pick in the third round.  Has started his first two years, and looks to be the best defensive back on the team right now.

2010: Tyson Alualu.  Outrage from the fan base and analysts broke minutes after the Jags took Alualu with their 10th overall pick,  Defensive tackle out of California who was selected before Jimmy Clausen? Unbelievable!

Reality of it? Alualu was the best defensive tackle last season besides the phenom known as Ndamukong Suh.  Alualu and Terrance Knighton are the concrete players in a defense that has some rebuilding to do.  Jimmy Clausen on the other hand, well, he's going to have a tough time starting on the worst team in the league.

So, now as we look ahead to the 2011 draft, who in the world could be on this team's radar?

Perhaps a wild guess at this point, but let me break down five guys who have a great chance of being a hot selection come the 16th overall pick:

1. Aldon Smith: OLB/Missouri—I already wrote an article on NFLTouchdown.com about how Smith may be that young intriguing prospect that the Jaguars cannot pass up on at pick 16.  Similar to how Jason Pierre-Paul looks to have been a late first-round home run for the Giants from last season.  A young guy who began to really take over at the end of the season.

The Jaguars have two guys that are about to possibly hit the market in Justin Durant and Kirk Morrison.  With these two starting linebackers gone, the Jaguars will immediately need to fill the void.  Smith may need some time to get ready for the NFL, so a guy like Akeem Ayers may be more NFL ready, but Smith's potential will be very tempting if still on the board. 

2. Jimmy Smith: CB/Colorado—Nobody will have Smith going this high, but if the Jaguars fall in love with him, he will not last until the mid-second round.  He's 6'2", and has great coverage skills.  Will he be a reach at this point?  I don't know if I understand what that means anymore.  Alualu was apparently a reach at pick 10, but has obviously done a great job and was worthy of that pick.

Smith's addition would be a big upgrade to this depleted secondary; however, there is some risk with this pick that may scare Jacksonville away.  Smith had some off the field issues at Colorado, and that may mean a big "NO" from Gene Smith. 

3. Ryan Kerrigan: DE/Purdue—The name that you will see next the Jaguars in most mock drafts is Kerrigan.  Kerrigan proved at the combine he is more athletic than most believed coming out of college, and will look to be between a top 15-25 pick.

Do I truly believe the Jags will select Kerrigan, not really.  But they are in love with Aaron Kampman, and Kerrigan's similarities will inevitably intrigue Gene Smith.  The amount of potential in the defensive end position in this year's draft, I'm inclined to say wait until the third or fourth round to grab one.

4. Julio Jones: WR/Alabama—Here is a very tempting playmaker.  Jones blew people away at the combine, and then broke his foot.  Jones has great size, speed, hands—everything you look for in a wideout taken in the first round.

The broken foot is an issue, but Jones will recover and could be a steal outside of the top 10.  The Jaguars may lose Mike Sims-Walker in free agency and will be in need of a true No. 1 receiver.  Jones has the potential to be a true playmaker in the NFL and could fit in perfectly with Jacksonville.  What is scary?  The Jaguars track record when it comes to first-round receivers.  From Reggie Wililams to Matt Jones, all the way back to R. Jay Soward, this team is yet to select a wide receiver worthy of the first round.

5. Mike Pouncey: C/Florida—Definitely the wild card here, Pouncey is a NFL-ready center.  Pouncey is a very solid player that many would say is a safe pick at the end of the first round.  My question is, if he is a solid, safe player, why can't he go earlier? 

The Jaguars have an aging Brad Meester, and could always use depth on the offensive line.  Pouncey would be the future at center, and establish that much needed depth.  Offensive line is beginning to become a strong point for the Jaguars, but value is value.  The only reason I believe Pouncey is not worthy of this pick is because centers are not valued as a premium position to grab in the first round. 

Well, if the Jags pass on Pouncey and end up with a bust at end or QB, then it will be hard to argue he isn't worth the pick.

Five good football players, five different positions.  The Jaguars have not and will not draft for need with Gene Smith operating the draft board.  Smith's value board is bound to have some wild cards and because of that, I would not be surprised in the Jags choose somebody that I have not mentioned. 

The five players listed above are guys that possess great talent, and compared to the rest of the crop, should be selected around picks 10-25. 

Follow me on Twitter @JvilleJaguars

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It seems like now is a good time to continue the tradition and see who would make perfect sense for Jacksonville in the upcoming draft. 

Before I go into the 2010 draft, here is a look back at who I selected in last year's draft and how it panned out.

1) OT Eugene Monroe

Surprisingly enough, I got this one correct. I knew it was going to be an offensive tackle but thought Monroe made the most sense out of him, Jason Smith, and Andre Smith.

2) WR Hakeem Nicks

Took a chance and prayed that Nicks would last into the second round. I was wrong. Giants snagged him in the late first round.

3) RB Javon Ringer

Pretty bad choice for the third round. He ended up lasting into the fifth round, where the Titans selected him. Good thing the Jaguars knew about Rashad Jennings in the seventh round. 

4) S William Moore

Ended up soaring up the draft boards by the time the NFL draft came around and was selected in the second round by the Atlanta Falcons.

5) QB Pat White

Another guy who ended up going much earlier than most expected.  The Dolphins selected White in the second round.

6) OT Lydon Murtha

Developmental tackle who ended up being drafted by the Lions in the seventh round. Yet to see playing time but still needs plenty of time to develop.

At the time I made this mock draft, the Jaguars did not possess a seventh round pick.

Here is the "perfect" draft for the 2010 NFL draft.

1 (10): TRADE—Jaguars trade first rounder (10th overall) and fifth rounder (12th pick) to Arizona for their first rounder (26th overall), second rounder (26th pick), and sixth rounder (26th pick).

This trade would work out if QB Jimmy Clausen were available because Arizona is heading into the season with only Matt Leinart and would love to add a guy like Clausen to be the franchise quarterback.

1 (26): S Earl Thomas, Texas

Jaguars trade down and are able to upgrade their secondary. Thomas' stock falls because of Taylor Mays' rise up the draft board due to the Combine. 

2 (26): QB Colt McCoy, Texas

Texas is this year's UCLA (Marcedes Lewis and Maurice Jones-Drew). Tim Tebow's name gets him drafted ahead of Colt McCoy, and the Jaguars reap the benefits by finding a very good QB, possibly even their quarterback of the future. Two years behind David Garrard and McCoy is ready to take over.

3 (10): DE Alex Carrington, Arkansas State

The Jaguars fall in love with another small-school prospect with big upside. At 6'5", 285 lbs., Carrington can jump right in and contribute in a rotation consisting of Derrick Harvey, Aaron Kampman, and Quentin Groves. 

4 (10): C Matt Tennant, Boston College

May be slightly unrealistic to think he will last into the fourth round, but in a very weak center class, it is a possibility. Tennant can come in to help out the aging Brad Meester. I wouldn't be surprised if he stole the starting job by the end of the season.

6 (11): OLB Rennie Curran, Georgia

Very talented outside linebacker who is going to make somebody very happy. If he falls this far I would be surprised, but then again, this is wishful thinking. Curran would add great depth behind the starters and could eventually see himself starting opposite Daryl Smith.

6 (26): G Chris DeGeare, Wake Forest

DeGeare is starting to make his way up some draft boards and would be a great pick in the late portion of the sixth round. He would add nice depth and could eventually be a solid backup or possibly a starter in a few years.

This concludes the "perfect" draft for Jacksonville. As a realist, I do believe that the odds the Jaguars can find a trading partner and get a late first round pick and second round pick are very slim, but this would be great if it worked out.

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Inking a four year, $26 million contract, Kampman now allows this team to perhaps maneuver a little more in this year's upcoming draft.

Looking ahead at the Jaguars first-round pick, 10th overall, it seemed like they were leaning towards two players. Those two players were DE Derrick Morgan out of Georgia Tech, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul out of South Florida. 

I believe it is safe to say to all Jaguars fans that this free-agent pickup just saved the team another Derrick Harvey selection. 

Morgan, who did reach the quarterback 12.5 times last season, put up the stats in college, but did not look to be a dominate force at end. Pierre-Paul is a one-year, big-name school player who has plenty of work to do to become a force in the NFL.

In other words, neither of them look to be worthy of a top-10 selection in the draft. 

Although Kampman does not solve the team's problems at defensive end, it should help this team do one of a few options, those being:

1.  The Jaguars trade their first-round (10th overall) selection away to somebody looking to trade up and receive a late first-round selection, and possibly a second- or third-round selection in this year's draft.  Remember, the Jaguars do not possess a second-round pick in the draft.

What this means: The Jaguars can use their late first-round selection on the BAP at the time. More than likely, with the deep class of defensive ends, unless somehow Morgan or Pierre-Paul fall to the late 20s, the Jaguars will wait until rounds 2-4 to select a DE. 

A couple names that might be around this late in the first round include S Earl Thomas and C Maurkice Pouncey. Thomas would help fill the void in what was a very poor secondary last year. Pouncey could come in to be the center of the future with an aging Brad Meester.

Another possibility would be LB Jerry Hughes or Sean Witherspoon. The Jaguars have two very good linebackers and the addition of Hughes or Witherspoon would only help.

This would also mean the Jaguars would receive a second-round pick or extra third-round pick. If this is the case, the Jaguars may pull the trigger and select the fan-favorite Tim Tebow in the second round.

Although I am not completely on board for bringing this guy in to be the quarterback of the future, it is hard to imagine this team passing him up in the second round if he is available. Rounds three through six could then be devoted to drafting one of the many talented defensive ends, and hopefully adding some depth at cornerback.

2.  The Jaguars keep the 10th overall selection and land the BAP at the time. If the Jaguars stay put, I just can't see them using this pick to bring in another Derrick Harvey.  I have seen mock draft after mock draft that say Jason Pierre-Paul is the pick, but I will have to say that Gene Smith is smarter than that.

With players such as WR Dez Bryant, LB Rolando McClain, and CB Joe Haden possibly on the board, it could make for an interesting selection. You also can't rule out the possibility that Jimmy Clausen may still be available and could perhaps attract some interest from Jacksonville. Then again, if Clausen is available, the Jaguars would have a few suitors looking to trade into this selection.

If this were to happen, the Jaguars would probably look at either CB Joe Haden, WR Dez Bryant, LB Rolando McClain, or S Earl Thomas. Haden would make sense simply because this team's secondary struggled last year. Fan-favorite Derek Cox looked solid last year, but nothing is wrong with another solid cornerback.

WR Dez Bryant seems to be a long-shot simply because of his off-the-field issues. If Bryant did not get suspended, then this would be a different story and more than likely he would not have even lasted to the 10th overall selection. Bryant does makes some sense, however, as the Jaguars have their number one receiver in Mike Walker, but since the release of Torry Holt, they lack a number two.

Mike Thomas looks to be the slot receiver heading into next season, and the team is high on Troy Williamson coming off an injury. The fact of the matter is that Williamson is unproven, and has only shown upside during the preseason. Bryant would add the great playmaking receiver that Garrard needs.

LB Rolando McClain would be tough to pass up here because he is the best linebacker coming out of the draft. McClain's addition would be risky because both McClain and Justin Durant are middle/interior linebackers. If McClain was put in the middle and Durant moved to the outside, then this would be a pretty impressive group with Daryl Smith as well.

Lastly is Earl Thomas out of Texas. I am a little skeptical as to whether or not Thomas is worthy of being taken this early, but he is looking like the second best safety in the draft.

Freak of nature Taylor Mays looks like a beast, and runs incredibly fast, however he looks more and more like a star linebacker in the making compared to safety. His senior year did not lie, as Mays struggled at times. Many players who have run incredible times at the combine have proven that it doesn't translate into NFL success.

Earl Thomas could possibly even be available later in the 1st round, or he may go as early as 10-12.

After grabbing the BAP at pick 10, the Jaguars could then grab a defensive end to develop in later rounds, as well as a free safety and possibly a quarterback.

3. The Jaguars truly believe that keeping the 10th overall pick and selecting either DE Derrick Morgan or DE Jason Pierre-Paul is the correct choice. This would bring another young, talented end into the rotation.

I'm not a big fan of this choice because it puts plenty of this team's payroll in one position. The combined salaries of Harvey, Kampman, and either Morgan or Pierre-Paul would be a lot of money to guys who could or could not improve the NFL-worst's pass rush last season. I see the Jaguars doing this only if GM Gene Smith can see Freeney or Peppers-like potential in Morgan or Pierre-Paul. Avoiding another Derrick Harvey is something he knows he must do. 

In all honesty, if this is the selection, then the Jaguars should have made a larger push for Julius Peppers. The combined salaries of Kampman and the rookie would be near what they would have given Peppers, but Peppers would definitely have given this team a more stable option at end who guarantees a lot of pressure on the quarterback. 

If the Jaguars go with a DE with their first-round pick, then the Jaguars would have to address their need for a safety with their third-round pick (given Tim Tebow is not available). Looking at last season, the Jaguars have a couple glaring needs, and one of them is to improve their defensive secondary. 

Reggie Nelson needs to only see limited time and in a division with the best quarterback in the league, Peyton Manning, and one of the best in the league, Matt Schaub, it is a necessity to have a secondary capable of stopping the pass. 

Going into the 2010 NFL draft, the Jaguars more than likely will have drafting a young, developmental quarterback on their radar. The Jaguars will look closely at guys like Tony Pike, Dan LeFevour, John Skelton, and Mike Kafka. Garrard looked decent last season, but it is getting more and more obvious that this team needs to start looking for the quarterback of the future.

I don't believe any of the guys coming out in later rounds will be that, but they may be serviceable backups for the future. I am very interested in seeing how teams start to rate Colt McCoy. It is hard to decipher whether or not he is a late first-round prospect, or a possible third-round prospect. 

Tebow will more than likely be gone by the end of the second round, and therefore doesn't look like much of a possibility for Jacksonville. This is a blessing in disguise because Tebow is never going to become a full-time, reliable starting quarterback in the NFL. Right now it seems like a lot of Jaguars fans just want to see his pretty face sitting on the sidelines in a Jaguars uniform.  

The good news is that the Jaguars are looking a lot better this year than they did last year. Last year it seemed like the whole team was in complete re-building mode and this year there is a solid foundation with the opportunity for improvement in a few places.

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