2011 NFL Draft Big Board: Ranking the Top 40 Prospects by Risk

March 18, 2011   ·     ·   Jump to comments

Whether it has been in regards to position value or position scarcity, we have discussed the philosophy of ranking draft prospects in great detail of late.  My article on why selecting the best player available is not always a viable draft strategy was a bit polarizing, with excellent arguments arising on both sides of the debate.
Another reason I think it is sometimes efficient to bypass the best player available is due to risk.  In the first few rounds of the draft, teams should be looking to select players with high floors, i.e. low-risk players.  If you have the first overall draft pick, for example, the upside of that prospect is naturally limited (relative to his draft spot).  He’s supposed to be the top player in the draft, and outside of a Peyton Manning-esque career, he probably won’t surpass the hype.  Simple statistics.
Of course, there’s also the fact that “missing” on a top-...

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